ChainCatcher reported on November 11, 2026 that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost was tracking losses among Bitcoin’s short-term holders.
Their spent output profit ratio (SOPR) had fallen to 0.98 and, he said, had stayed in loss-making territory since October 30. On that reading, this group was realizing losses when Bitcoin changed hands.
SOPR measures the profit or loss booked when a UTXO is spent. Each UTXO carries its own cost basis. When Bitcoin moves, the old UTXO is destroyed and a new one is created at a new realized price. SOPR is the difference between those prices. The figures in this report cover short-term holders only.
Their monthly average had earlier reached 1.013. It had since fallen back to 1, the neutral level, so average profit had been wiped out. The later print of 0.98 sat below that monthly mean.
Darkfost said data from the preceding days suggested the market was leaning toward a capitulation phase. In his view, during a long bull market, SOPR moving into losses has often coincided with buying opportunities. He also limited that comparison: the monthly average had not yet shown the same signal, and capitulation might continue for several more days before reaching an extreme.
The dated record is the metric path, not a proven turning point. Loss-making spends are described from October 30, with short-term SOPR at 0.98 and the monthly average back at 1 in the November 11, 2026 report. Darkfost’s long-bull-market parallel is his reading of earlier episodes. The difference he noted is that the monthly average had not confirmed it, and an extreme was not presented as already reached.
Original report: ChainCatcher, November 11, 2026.
