Over 1.2 billion S tokens are trapped in losses near $0.80, forming a strong sell wall.
Sonic’s May 6 native USDC upgrade could enhance liquidity and institutional appeal.
Sonic (S), formerly known as Fantom (FTM), has encountered repeated rejections around the $0.80 level, suggesting a potential ceiling in the near term. Currently trading at approximately $0.51, the asset has dropped below key support zones, including the 0.236 Fibonacci level, raising short-term concerns for bullish investors.
On-chain data from IntoTheBlock reveals a significant barrier at $0.80: nearly 1.22 billion S tokens are held at a loss around that price, forming a central “sell wall.”
This cluster of unrealized losses often acts as Resistance as investors seek to exit breakeven positions. By contrast, the volume of tokens in profit—bought between $0.30 and $0.54 is considerably lower, further reinforcing the weight of overhead supply.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reading of -0.12 indicates declining buying pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the neutral 50 mark, signaling bearish momentum.
Source: SosoValue
Analysts warn that unless these indicators reverse, the S token may revisit support levels at $0.45 or, in a more bearish scenario, even fall below $0.40.
Native USDC Rollout Brings Structural Optimism to the Ecosystem
Despite these bearish signals, a structural catalyst looms on the horizon. Sonic is scheduled to transition from bridged USDC (USDC) to native USDC on May 6, which could redefine liquidity dynamics across the ecosystem. This upgrade will integrate Circle’s native USDC issuance directly onto the Sonic blockchain, eliminating reliance on third-party bridges and reducing fragmentation.
Circle’s Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) V2 will be deployed as part of the rollout to enable secure and fast cross-chain transfers. Circle will assume control of the bridged USDC contract during a one-week pause in bridging, ensuring a seamless shift to the native asset with no user intervention required.
Native USDC will unlock regulated liquidity, institutional-grade on/off ramps through Circle Mint and tighter integration with multichain liquidity infrastructure, setting the stage for enhanced capital efficiency and long-term adoption.
Price Outlook Hinges on Volume, Breakout Patterns, and Post-May Momentum
Sonic’s 48-day consolidation range reflects a broader market indecision. Despite a brief uptick in trading volume following the USDC announcement, data indicates a lack of sustained momentum, especially at resistance zones such as the VWAP SR, the 0.618 Fibonacci level, and the value area high.
Two potential paths now define market expectations. On the bullish side, a breakout above $0.60 driven by post-May liquidity inflows could push S toward the $0.75–$0.80 range.
Achieving a clean breakout past $0.80 would likely require a major catalyst, such as institutional inflows or the adoption of native USDC within key DeFi protocols. Conversely, if the upgrade fails to generate meaningful volume, S may revisit lower support levels at $0.45 and potentially test $0.3596.
While Sonic’s upcoming upgrade represents a clear long-term advantage, short-term technicals suggest caution until price action confirms a bullish breakout with higher volume and momentum.
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