Bitcoin is holding above $82,197 with key resistance at $85K and support at $78.5K
Institutional demand remains strong, with ETF inflows and whale accumulation driving bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin’s price has been all over the place lately, with uncertainty growing due to economic factors, market conditions, and investor sentiment. After starting the week strong, BTC fell to a weekly low of $82,030, sparking debates about whether a bigger drop is coming.
Experts are keeping an eye on liquidity, how Bitcoin moves in relation to stocks, and key support levels. Some believe it could fall to around $72,000–$75,000, while others think it might bounce back if it holds certain price levels at $85,000-$90,000.
With global events like U.S. tariffs and money supply changes affecting investor confidence, Bitcoin’s future remains uncertain, leaving traders to weigh short-term risks against its long-term potential.
Macroeconomic Pressure: CPI Report and Fed Decisions
The newly released March U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is playing a key role in influencing Bitcoin’s movement. The inflation rate rose to 3.5%, higher than February’s 3.2%, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. If inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve may delay expected interest rate cuts, which could impact investor sentiment across risk assets, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Currently, traders see a 54.9% chance of a Fed rate cut in June, down from 65% last week. The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady, signaling a “wait and see” approach as inflation and economic conditions evolve. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with monetary policy, meaning prolonged high interest rates could lead to increased volatility. Despite this, Bitcoin continues to attract investors as an inflation hedge, with steady ETF inflows reflecting confidence in its long-term value.
However, Market Analyst Capital Flows expressed his concerns that Bitcoin could correct to either $72,000-$75,000 if liquidity conditions remain a challenge.
Technical Breakdown: Resistance and Support Levels
Bitcoin faces resistance at $85,000. A breakout past $85K could open the door to $88K, the level facing multiple rejections since March’s start. Failure to break above $85K may lead to a retest of $80K. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average at $78,500 serves as crucial support.
Macro Researcher and Bitcoin analyst Axel Adler Jr remains bullish after highlighting three important resistance levels for BTC: The realized price at $90K, the 111-day SMA at $95K, and the 3-6 months short-term holders realized price at $89K.
Zooming in, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 30, indicating oversold conditions, which could trigger profit-taking or selling pressure. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bullish, supporting continued upside. On-chain data shows Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price is at $75,800—if BTC drops below this, selling pressure may increase.
Digital Asset Analyst Crypto Chase in an X post thinks BTC is at a do or die point, might be up to a retest at $80K.
Bitcoin’s Strong Accumulation Continues
Bitcoin’s exchange supply keeps shrinking, suggesting strong demand from institutions and long-term holders. GameStop also plans to invest a whopping $1.3 billion in Bitcoin, boosting Bitcoin’s corporate adoption. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF saw $600 million in net inflows in March, reflecting heightened interest from traditional finance. CryptoQuant data shows whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have added 30,000 BTC in the past month.
Some short-term traders are cashing out near current levels, causing small pullbacks. However, the ongoing accumulation trend indicates steady demand, which could support Bitcoin’s price in the weeks ahead.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum remains intact despite macroeconomic headwinds. Key levels to watch are $85,000 resistance and $78,500 support. Institutional demand and ETF inflows continue to strengthen Bitcoin’s outlook, setting the stage for a potential push toward $90K.